Russia may be replacing 100 tanks a month — but with older models, which 'smacks of absolute desperation,' expert says (2024)
A UK intelligence claim that Russia is generating more than 100 tanks a month likely means it's relying on older models kept in storage, but it can't keep pulling them out forever, experts told Business Insider.
The UK Defense Ministry said late last month that Russia had lost up to 365 main battle tanks since October but could "probably generate at least 100 MBTs a month," meaning it would be able to replace its battlefield losses.
But William Alberque, who runs the arms-control program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that this figure was likely possible only if Russia was taking older tanks out of storage.
It wouldn't be able to produce new tanks at this rate, he said.
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Alberque added that Russia would not be able to rely on this method in the long term, as that stock is limited.
Nicholas Drummond, a defense analyst, agreed, telling BI that Russia was relying on older models as its ability to produce new ones was limited.
He said some of the tanks would be "almost museum-quality machinery."
George Barros, a Russia expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI that open-source information pointed to Russia making up to 35 tanks a month by September, but it's not clear where that figure is now.
He said reaching 100 would be in line with Russia's stated goal for last year, when it said it wanted to make 1,500 tanks, about 125 a month.
It's been able to use the older vehicles effectively, but in support roles normally done by infantry fighting vehicles, experts said.
Even so, getting out older tank models "smacks of absolute desperation," Alberque said.
These tanks are not likely to be a big help for Russia in its attacks because they're not very powerful, he said.
"If I'm getting a bunch of T-62s and T-64s and told to attack a Ukrainian position, then no, that doesn't make me more reckless. It makes me hopeless," he said.
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But another expert said these older tanks could still create a problem for Ukraine.
"Every time the Russians attack in waves, they have to spend ordinance defeating that attack, and their supplies are running low," Rajan Menon, a director at the US think tank Defense Priorities, told BI.
Ukraine has lost fewer tanks than Russia, according to weapons trackers and experts, but Russia "can throw more soldiers, men, and machines into the fight," Menon said.
And while Ukraine is increasing its weapon production, it's not able to do so for tanks, giving Russia the advantage.
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Russia, Menon said, can simply bring more and more equipment and soldiers to the front line and force Ukraine to expend scarce resources. And that's especially a problem now, he said, with future aid from the US in doubt.
Russia generates 100-plus tanks a month, largely replacing its battlefield losses, UK intel said. That rate is likely possible only if it's taking old tanks out of storage, experts told BI. Old tanks are weaker, and Ukraine has destroyed many of them, but they still tie up resources.
After losing hundreds of tanks trying and failing to capture Kyiv in early 2022, and struggling to expand production of new tanks that summer, the Russian army in mid-2022 reached deep into its stocks of old Cold War tanks—and started pulling out working vehicles.
"The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce at least 100 main battle tanks per month and is therefore able to replace battlefield losses, allowing Russian forces to continue their current tempo of operations 'for the foreseeable future,'” the report reads, referring to the UK Ministry of Defense.
Ominously for the Russians, the most recent projections anticipate that, as early as mid-2025, there won't be any more old tanks and fighting vehicles left in storage. “Time is running out for Russia,” wrote Artur Rehi, an Estonian soldier and analyst.
Today, ongoing contracts for the US Army and other clients have disclosed the new reality: the U.S. military industry's production capabilities have narrowed down to 12 M1 Abrams tanks per month, or only up to 135 vehicles per year, as stated by Polish analysts in their media outlets.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, commonly referred to as the Russian Armed Forces, are the military of Russia. In terms of active-duty personnel, they are the world's fifth-largest military force, with 1.15 million and at least two million reserve personnel.
The United States currently has around 6,000 M1 Abrams tanks in its inventory. These powerful tanks have been a cornerstone of the U.S. Army's armored forces since the early 1980s, known for their formidable firepower and advanced technology.
It was also reported that Russia now produces more ammunitions than the United States and Europe combined and it can manufacture 200 tanks from scratch and two million units of ammunition in a year according to Western sources.
So while Ukraine has managed at least to maintain its overall tank inventory even after losing around 700 tanks in combat, according to Oryx, its tank needs are much greater today than they were in 2022. If every brigade had a single battalion with 31 tanks, Ukraine would need more than 3,000 tanks.
"Russia can probably generate at least 100 MBTs a month and therefore retains the capacity to replace battlefield losses and continue this level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future," the ministry said. The ministry added that Russia, in addition to tanks, had lost up to 700 armored vehicles since October.
WASHINGTON—The war in Ukraine has devastated Russia's preinvasion military machine, with nearly 90% of its prewar army lost to death or injury, and thousands of battle tanks destroyed, according to a newly declassified U.S. intelligence assessment shared with Congress.
Russia has retained the capacity to replace battlefield losses in Ukraine as it can produce 100 main battle tanks per month, according to a recent UK Ministry of Defence intelligence report.
Old war stocks could hold up “for several more years,” the Estonians concluded. Open-source analysts, who scour satellite imagery to count active, destroyed and stored armored vehicles, posit trends that point to Russia's vehicle reserves running out in 2025 or 2026.
Bottom line. Despite losing hundreds of armoured vehicles and artillery pieces per month on average, Russia has been able to keep its active inventory numbers stable. For 2023, we estimate that Russia was able to reactivate at least 1,180 to 1,280 MBTs and around 2,470 IFVs and APCs from storage.
It was also reported that Russia now produces more ammunitions than the United States and Europe combined and it can manufacture 200 tanks from scratch and two million units of ammunition in a year according to Western sources.
Gjerstad said he believes Russia can manufacture up to 330 tanks a year but is actually building half that. Still, Russia managed to replenish about 1,140 tanks that it is estimated to have lost in 2023 by dusting off and refurbishing old armor taken from storage.
The rapid growth of heavy industry in the USSR under the Five-Year plans made a large tank fleet possible. The Soviets also spent tens of millions of dollars on U.S. equipment and technology to modernise dozens of automotive and tractor factories, which would later produce tanks and armoured vehicles.
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